bayes.markets #436 106425e

Trade for real

Call the next candle.

The candle on the right has not closed yet. Call it green or red - one call, and if you are right your stake comes back doubled.

The candle on the right has not closed yet. Call it green or red at the price the book is quoting. Each share pays $1 if you are right, and nothing if you are not.

You sign the order in your own wallet - nothing here can move your money without that. Your account shows every balance and the full book.

The price is the real one: the Chainlink BTC/USD feed on Polygon, recorded once a minute and folded into the candles above. It is the on-chain feed and not the faster Data Streams product that settles real markets, so treat it as the same question asked of a slower source. What you put on it is play money - a thousand fake dollars, kept in this browser, with nothing to deposit, nothing to withdraw and nothing to win.

Two ways to call it

There is no third call. A candle that closes exactly where it opened has not answered the question, so it settles nothing: your call carries to the next candle and is decided there. On 5,005 real candles that happened 37 times.

Two calls raise the bar, they do not lower it. The split comes out 50.4% green to 49.6% red, so the strategy that knows nothing - always call green - scores 50.4%, and that is the number a player has to beat. A third call used to hold the same baseline down to 42%, which flattered everybody who beat it.

How this works under the hood

The question this game asks is not one it invented. Polymarket has been running it as a live market on Bitcoin and Solana for months - five minutes, fifteen minutes, four hours, an hour, a day - and every one of those markets settles by a rule that is published before it opens.

The hourly market settles on the same sentence this page is built on: up if the one-hour BTC/USDT candle closes at or above where it opened. The five and fifteen minute markets compare a Chainlink 60-second average price against the price at the start of the window, and the daily ones compare two Binance candles taken a day apart at noon New York time.

That is the part worth knowing, and it is not "the venue is reputable". Nothing there is a judgement call: the feed is named up front, the comparison is arithmetic, and anyone can recompute the answer from public data. The price is what two strangers agreed on in an order book, and no house sets it or takes the other side of it.

It is also a market people genuinely use, which is what keeps the reference meaningful. In the 24 hours to 14 August 2026 the 10 series below traded $18.5M:

That question, being asked right now

Feed: connecting. Pushed as it happens, once a second, and it says so above when it stops. The five minute window is the market's own: a new one opens as each one closes.

Bayes reads those series and scores a call against them. Nothing is staked here at any point, there is no counterparty and no payout - the market is what an answer is checked against, never a bankroll.

The game above is a demo on a one-minute candle that has not closed yet - play money, and not wired to the live feed in this block. Those figures are that market trading; they do not deal you a card, score a call or move a streak. The rates quoted on this page were measured on 5,005 exchange candles, and scored rounds, when they arrive, will be re-measured on the exact series they are drawn from.

One difference will survive that. Those markets are two-sided and a candle closing exactly where it opened settles up, because a market has to pay somebody and close the book. This game has the same two calls and no book to close, so it does not settle that candle at all: the call carries to the next one. Handing the same call back costs nothing here, and deciding it on a candle that never moved would be a coin flip wearing the result of a read.

Early access

What you just played is a demo, for play money, on a candle that has not closed yet. The real thing keeps score. Use Connect wallet at the top to claim your place in line.

It is a signature, not a transaction: no gas, no approval, and nothing moves. Nothing is staked here at any point - a call is scored, never wagered.

Follow the bot on Telegram Updates as they ship, and the round going live. Say anything back and it reaches the people building this - nothing is staked there either, and there is nothing to claim.